2019-06-21

The Real Deterrent Against War with Iran

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

by Neil Godfrey

Excerpt from Aljazeera’s How close are Iran and the US to war?

The “real deterrent” in the current situation was the fact “the Iranians were able to down the most advanced American drone using stealth technology with an Iranian-made surface-to-air missile,” he said, adding that Trump may have stood down because he recognised any Iranian response to a US attack would be “relentless and disproportionate”

In such a scenario, Iran was also likely to target US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where the drone that was shot down reportedly took off from.

“I think it would be an enormous miscalculation on the part of the Americans to assume that the Iranian response to any strike would be limited.

“It will be larger than the initial strike, it will be disproportionate, and it will be relentless. And it will not only target the aggressor, it will target those countries – like the United Arab Emirates or perhaps Saudi Arabia – that allowed the US to carry out this attack.”

Mahjoob Zweiri, director of the Gulf Studies centre at Qatar University, said Trump’s actions towards Iran are designed to appeal to his support base in the US ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. 

“He has done what will make [his base] happy, he has withdrawn from the [nuclear] deal, he imposed sanctions, he basically made sure the economy of Iran was really falling apart. He has done everything he has promised his base. 

“Trump’s main focus is a second term. If any military action against Iran will affect this badly, he will never do it.” 

Zweiri said the escalating series of incidents in the Gulf may be an Iranian ploy to pile up pressure on the international community to act and protect Tehran from US sanctions. 

“They want to push more for the international community to act, to mediate, to push, to pressure the United States, to have a dialogue because this status quo is collapsing their economy and will have serious ramifications on the stability of the regime in Iran. 

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8 Comments

  • Peter Grullemans
    2019-06-22 01:30:29 GMT+0000 - 01:30 | Permalink

    911 has taught us that we could wake up one morning to the shock of war or acts of terror on our TV screens. It has also shown us that the US will go to any length and use its propagandist systems to hide the truth from their own citizens. And look at the US military bases surrounding Iran – who is the aggressor and provocateur ? Not Iran, the vast majority of whose citizens are also opposed to conflict with the US.
    .
    We have the US controlled by multi-billionaires versus Iran controlled by ultra religious. The overwhelming majority of US citizens are ignorant of their government’s schemes to destabilise and demonise Islam. The vast majority of Iranian citizens are not in favour of their government’s schemes to uphold the religious obligation to evangelise and spread the rule of Islam, or a brand of it.
    .
    The solution? For a start, when those of us who are informed in the free world get off our backsides and help expose the fake news and lies that our citizens have been fed. We need to form local peace groups. As individuals in Australia for instance we need to approach our politicians and demand that they reconsider the nature of our alliance with the US. The Australian government is of course afraid of the possible future uprising of Islam in our world and that one of our nearest neighbours, Indonesia, may side against us. Thus it is thought best to stay close friends with the US.
    .
    We need a think tank to work on these issues. Start a peace group !

    • Neil Godfrey
      2019-06-25 14:32:26 GMT+0000 - 14:32 | Permalink

      It has also shown us that the US will go to any length and use its propagandist systems to hide the truth from their own citizens.

      That does not allow us to infer secret Jewish conspiracies, though. A study of how actions of the government compare with their stated policies or intentions — these alone alert us to what “secrets” they are trying to hide. The lobbyist pressure and influence groups are no secret. We can see whose interests are being served and to what ends despite the political statements professing noble intentions etc.

      I long for the few times in recent decades when an Australian government has sought a more independent foreign policy. But the reason the Liberals are so close to America has more to do with economic/financial interests than any fear of Islam. That fear thing is one of those smokescreens they use to win votes — they deplored Pauline Hanson when she started it but then they began to steal her thunder with the same line when they saw how popular she was with it.

  • Robert Jase
    2019-06-22 15:10:47 GMT+0000 - 15:10 | Permalink

    If only I’d voted for Kodos.

  • Marty
    2019-06-23 18:14:36 GMT+0000 - 18:14 | Permalink

    I don’t think a peace council / think tank will accomplish anything. A deep study of the text of the 14th. chapter of Genesis, would be a good place to start to understand what is coming. The end is hidden in the beginning.

    • Robert Jase
      2019-06-23 23:38:41 GMT+0000 - 23:38 | Permalink

      Of course the whole chapter & verse thing was added centuries later, there are none in the originalversion. Cut & paste as you please.

  • 2019-06-24 14:29:15 GMT+0000 - 14:29 | Permalink

    One would do well not to believe any aspect of the reported narrative. Trump is an out and out liar about everything. The idea that anything he’s said regarding any of this has any truth to it is highly in doubt.

    I’ve heard so many reporters and pundits comment on this situation and all seem to be total morons. They all either take Trump’s claims at face value, or at the very least take the claim that a strike was imminent but he called it off at face value, as is the case here.

    There is no evidence that Trump called off anything or that there ever was a planned strike to begin with. The whole scenario is likely a made up lie. The idea that Trump “called off a strike” is nonsense and should not be accepted as a reliable account without significant verification.

    If there were plans for a strike, and it was not executed, there is no evidence that Trump called it off. What if Trump ordered a strike and military leadership refused and allowed Trump to save face by making his claim?

    I mean I have no idea what actually happened, and maybe there is a grain of truth is what Trump said, but come-on people, have we learned nothing? Why would anyone take any word that this man says as truth? Not only are we dealing with a lying president, but on top of that a lying military and a process of scenario that is always shrouded in misdirection and bullshit.

    The lack of skepticism is just mind-blowing. I haven’t heard a single reporter call into question whether the scenario itself of calling off a strike at the last minute was real. At best they only question his “real motives”. Forget the motives, the whole scenario is likely farce.

    • Peter Grullemans
      2019-06-25 01:48:43 GMT+0000 - 01:48 | Permalink

      OK a big think tank may not do anything. But a large number of small ones (through local peace groups) would get people realising that the ideas of RGP above (very well put) are important and we should engage with our politicians as a matter of urgency to open up the Parliamentary debate on Australia’s foreign policy. We need to get our government to realise that people want to move away from military reliance on the US, controlled by a wealthy and powerful few, who are the ultimate aggressors effectively causing the rise of religious extremism. If we can recognise China further that will be a step in the right direction. Tonight at the Australian Institute for International Affairs there will be a debate “That Australia Should Join China’s Belt One Road Initiative” at 6pm at The Glover Cottages 124 Kent Street Sydney. If anyone is interested you can see if there are still tickets $15 for non AIIA members at
      .
      https://aiiansw.tidyhq.com/
      .
      and look for the event ad ticket link.

      • Peter Grullemans
        2019-07-04 03:25:15 GMT+0000 - 03:25 | Permalink

        Neil I think you are misquoting or misunderstanding me when you refer to secret Jewish conspiracies. Let me be clear again that I do not believe or say that the cover up of the truth about 911 is religiously based. It is rich vs poor, with us mainly apathetic middle class keeping the two apart and preventing the truth from being discovered and / or accepted. Religion is used as a means to and end by the rich to control the poor. There are also many rich people who are themselves religious but I think that from our other discussions we are in agreement, are we not, that the supernatural basis of the world’s monotheistic religions is not real.
        .
        You refer to the Australian government’s economic interests, rather than fear of Islam, as the driver for US alliances. I do not think that is a fair comparison because if radical Islam succeeds in subduing Australia then we infidels will indeed become very poor. So the two go hand in hand and fear of Islam comes first.
        .
        If any Aussies wish to be proactive in deterring war with Iran I recommend having a look at this site and writing to our MP’s
        .
        http://www.warpowersreform.org.au/

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