2020-01-11

Did the Saudis Talk Trump Out of War with Iran? — or am I just dreaming?

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by Neil Godfrey

It sure looked like Trump was going all out to provoke a war with Iran — or maybe he was too stupid to think through the consequences of assassinating Qassem Soleimani [link is to Vridar post on QS’s bio] that far in advance. Then came this tweet:

And that tweet seems to have been forced out of him only after the Saudi’s themselves announced the meeting: see White House Press Association Rebukes Trump Administration for Secret Saudi Meeting in Oval Office.

The Saudis are having a hard enough time with the Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen and they recently saw how vulnerable their oil depots were to drone strikes. Anyway, Trump suddenly started talking of de-escalation and allowed the Iranians to respond so long as they gave warning so that no lives would be lost.

U.S. and Israeli hawks have long been itching for war with Iran, and that war would have been a perfect deflection from the impeachment mess. One can’t help but wonder what was discussed at that meeting with Trump and the Saudis.

Or am I just being alt-conspiratorial?

One thing is for sure, though. Obama managed with international support to “guarantee” Iran’s security if they gave up on a nuclear weapons program. I somehow find it inconceivable that Iran won’t have a nuclear weapon relatively soon. Trump’s action seems to have made that almost inevitable — so it seems when I read Dana Kennedy’s article in DCReport.org: The Suleimani Assassination May Set Back U.S. Intelligence Gathering: Striking the General Revealed NSA Capability to Spy on Top Iranians and Their Nuclear Weapons Program. After all, Trump does have a history of letting little secrets slip. Terrorists have learned not to use cell phones when they communicate; no doubt (given Dana Kennedy’s article) Iranians have now learned a similar lesson with respect to a (surely revamped) nuclear weapons program.

Iranian leadership would surely be even more madly insane than Trump if they don’t go all out to get a nuclear weapon now. How else could they “guarantee” their security from invasion or “shock and awe” bombing?

Meanwhile, the U.S. troops who continue to occupy the country they “liberated” have been obliged to turn away from their stated goal of “mopping up the remnants” of ISIS and standing guard against Iranian proxy attacks.

A nuclear-armed Iran (may not be such a bad thing for the immediate future), a resurgent ISIS — even a restored caliphate?, an inevitable eventual withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan and Iraq — unless, perhaps, the Saudis change their minds and offer to flatter Trump if he changes his mind once more on Iran.

But I’m only musing. I have no idea. A mere citizen who tries to keep on top of the news and what’s happening, or seems to be happening.

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Neil Godfrey

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3 Comments

  • Bob Jase
    2020-01-11 13:34:09 GMT+0000 - 13:34 | Permalink

    Prolly promised another hotel & golf course if he backed down. Trump can’t be talked out of anything but he can be bought.

  • 2020-01-11 15:10:23 GMT+0000 - 15:10 | Permalink

    The impeachment of POTUS Trump is rather ho-hum though, no?
    It’s not like the US Senate will vote for removal.
    It’s increasingly likely that the Senate won’t even hold a trial.
    They might vote to dismiss the Articles of Impeachment as their first order of business after receiving them.
    Why would the Senate care about Trump’s contempt of Congress? Why would the Senate care about Trump abusing the office of the Presidency?
    This is just more partisan politics more than it’s about an actual crime like obstruction of justice.
    Or maybe I’m not seeing things very clearly as someone who’s contemptuous of both the American Republicans and the American (establishment neoliberal) Democrats.

    • Neil Godfrey
      2020-01-14 01:25:22 GMT+0000 - 01:25 | Permalink

      Yes, and AOC is right when she says that in any other country she and Sanders would not even be in the same party as Biden. Even if Sanders were elected President how much of his ideals could he possibly get through?

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